Eliciting subjective probability distributions with binary lotteries

Scoring-Rule Procedures for Eliciting Subjective Probability and Utility Functions

This chapter considers a situation in which the elicitor wants to discover the precise form of a function which characterizes a subject’s preferences or probabilistic beliefs. All of the "scoring-rule" elicitation procedures developed have a common structure: the subject’s expected utility depends on a function reported by the subject, and the elicitor uses the reported function to calculate th...

A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts

We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free to use, and offers five different techniques for eliciting univariate probability distributions. A...

Binary Matroids and Quantum Probability Distributions

We characterise the probability distributions that arise from quantum circuits all of whose gates commute, and show when these distributions can be classically simulated efficiently. We consider also marginal distributions and the computation of correlation coefficients, and draw connections between the simulation of stabiliser circuits and the combinatorics of representable matroids, as develo...

A Comparison of Aggregation Methods of Subjective Probability Distributions By

Efficiently Encoding and Modeling Subjective Probability Distributions for Quantitative Variables

Expert forecasts of quantitative variables in the form of continuous subjective probability distributions are more useful to decision makers than are point estimates or confidence intervals. We present 2 experiments using participants recruited via the Internet aimed at (a) developing methods for estimating and modeling continuous subjective distributions from small numbers of judgments, and (b...